Ladson's
crazy understanding of what constitutes proof and this blog's first ever comment got me thinking about the importance of batting lineups.
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One way to try to quantify the impact of lineup order is with baseballmusings.com's lineup analysis tool. The tool projects runs scored per game based on each player's on-base and slugging percentage. I put in the expected Nationals Opening Day roster
here (using Baseball Prospectus' 2011 projections for OBP and SLG).
The expected Opening Day lineup with Werth batting second:
Alternate lineup with Werth batting cleanup:
I batted Espinosa and his low OBP second to create a bounding range for how much the projected R/PG could vary with Werth batting second vs. fourth (and still have a reasonable lineup).
Just for fun, the highest scoring lineup has Werth and Zimmerman leading off. Everyone else is simply slotted down two spots. Rodriguez is batting last to create more RBI opportunities for Werth and Zimmerman:
The run differential between lineups 1 and 2 above is 8.3 (.051*162). If you believe the lineup analysis tool, this equates to roughly 0.8 wins over the course of a season. Not too big of a deal, but if the Nationals have any shot of getting to 81 wins this year (and really, they don't), they're going to need all the 0.8 wins they can muster.
Note: Astute readers will notice that the runs/pg is a little low over the course of a season. This is because key lineup efficiencies like platoons and pinch-hitters are not considered. Livo is getting a lot of ABs.
I think the take away is that your best hitters should get the most at bats, right? By the way, I want the over on Danny Espinosa's OBP and SLG.
ReplyDeleteThe low runs/pg could also be because of key lineup deficiencies like Rick Ankiel. Just think what the runs/games would be if Elijah Dukes were your center fielder.