Adam Dunn: Living Legend

The opening paragraph of the game recap from the Nats 5-3 victory over the Marlins on April 7th:

MIAMI -- First baseman Adam LaRoche doesn't put pressure on himself, not even when it comes to replacing Adam Dunn, a living legend in the eyes of most Nationals fans because he averaged 38 home runs during his two seasons in Washington.

This isn't the first time Ladson has called Dunn a living legend:

You are not the only one who is still talking about Dunn, who is considered a living legend to many fans in Washington.

Man or Legend?

For those unfamiliar with nationals.com, Ladson's disdain for Dunn's game is only exceeded by his contempt for Dunn supporters.  Nobody quite knows why.  With the big man only a fond memory, there seems little point in subjecting Ladson's opinions on Dunn to statistical analysis.  The past is gone - but it shouldn't be forgotten.  And by 'it' I mean the 2007 and 2008 seasons.

They were absolutely brutal offensively:

The rankings don't convey the unrelenting bleakness that enveloped each futile AB, so let me unrepress some memories for you.  We'll start with 2007:

• Dmitri Young, Wily Mo Pena, and Cristian Guzman were the team's three best offensive performers 
• Robert Fick was deemed worthy of 221 plate appearances (234/.309/.305), redefining the term 'red flag'
• The Nats' highest finish in any NL offensive category was second; unfortunately, the cateogry was double plays grounded into (143).  This is especially amazing because nobody was ever on base.

Fick is on base in this picture because of a fielder's choice.

2008 offensive lowlights included:

• Zero players reached the 15 HR mark
• Of the regulars (300 AB), only two players were (just barely) above-average with the bat (Guzman with an OPS+ of 106 and Zimmerman with an OPS+ of 102)
• The Nats were shut out a franchise-record 21 times, which is particularly impressive because the Nats/Expos are no stranger to comic futility (the 1972 Expos were shut out 20 times)
• The Nationals once again excelled at grounding into double plays, this time tying the Dodgers for the league lead with 153

Sports is entertainment and neither of those lineups offered anything but pain and humiliation.  Then the clouds parted:

Touched by divinity, Adam (Dunn) became a Living Legend

Suddenly, Adam Dunn was holding up a '44' Nationals jersey at an off-season press conference.  Before our eyes could fully adjust to light, the Nationals offense was respectable again:

Mediocrity never felt so good.

The experience of watching a game dramatically improved.  The rate of blowouts - losing by 5+ runs - slackened from the soul-crushing pace of 2008:  The Nationals got blown out 36 times (out of 102 losses, or 35%) in 2008, but fell victim only 29 times (in 103 losses, or 28%) in 2009.  In addition to more regularly avoiding catastrophe, deficits seemed surmountable for the first time in years.  There was a statistically better chance of the 2009 Nationals winning when trailing after seven innings (.103) than there was of the 2008 Nationals winning when down after five (.100).  The 2008 squad was 7-36 when trailing after the first inning; the 2009 edition was 14-29 - exactly double the winning percentage.  In other words, even though the overall outcome was similar (102 losses in 2008; 103 in 2009), Nats baseball was fun again.  And that matters.

The two key drivers of the offense in 2009 were Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman (honorable mentions to Josh Willingham and one-third of a season from Tony Plush).  Below is a list of the top 10 OPS+ in Nationals history:

Nick Johnson is currently injured (or about to be injured).

Aside from pointing out that Dunn owns two of the best four offensive seasons Nationals fans have ever seen, it's worth noting that Ryan Zimmerman's two best years - by a mile - happened with Dunn protecting him.  He went from 2% better than the league average in 2008 to 33% better in the following season.  This is not a typical performance path.  Zimmerman's walk rate (BB/PA) went from 6.7% to 10.4%, as his swing percentage decreased for pitches both inside and outside the strike zone.  It's quite a luxury when you can finally afford to be selective.

Adam Dunn performed admirably while in DC (he even finished 21st in the MVP voting last year), but it was the context in which he entered and the residual effects of his tenure that are responsible for his status as a living legend - a status that is well deserved.