Dialing Back the Crazy Meter on Defense

The entirety of a brief spring training dispatch:

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- One of the reasons the Nationals haven't been able to win many games the last three seasons is because of their below-average defense. So far, little has changed this spring. The Nationals have made 13 errors in eight games. 

Manager Jim Riggleman said that he and the coaching staff address the need to improve the defense on a daily basis. The team often has fielding drills before Spring Training games.

The above stands in stark contrast to the 'defense is the reason the Nationals have lost so much' rants that have been the principle theme of Ladson's off-season coverage.  'One of the reasons.' 'Below-average defense.'  This is what progress looks like.

This calls for a round at the Progress Bar

The Two Ways to Win More Games

Last season the Nationals scored 655 runs and allowed 742, for a run differential of -87 and an overall record of 69-93.  Respectively, those outcomes ranked 14th, 12th, 13th, and 14th in the NL.

What's the most efficient way to reduce post-game scenes like this one?

It is obvious that run differential is highly determinative of a team's record.  It is equally obvious that there are two paths to improvement - (1) score more runs; (2) allow fewer runs.  A huge amount of virtual ink has been spilled on nationals.com advocating for improved defense and declaring the team's offense to be adequate.  In reality, though:

• Does it matter whether the team's run differential is improved through RA or RS?
• For a given run differential, how much does the overall level of RA and RS matter?
• Generally, what can be said about RA vs. RS improvements?

Bill Ladson's Defense Fetish

Ladson loves the leather.

From the 2/18 'Inbox':  "The reason the Nationals lost so many games the last few years is because of defense."


From the 2/20 Q&A with GM Mike Rizzo:  "Defense has been the weakest part of the team since 2008."


From that same interview: "How tough was it to watch the team play defense the last three years. The team was always at or near the bottom of that category?"


These are all very strong claims - could they be true?  (Spoiler: No.)