Monday, February 28, 2011

That Just Happened: February

February's 'That Just Happened' goes to the opening two paragraphs of the February 24th article 'Maya Hoping That Comfort Leads to Success':
VIERA, Fla. -- Right-hander Yunesky Maya looks comfortable in the Nationals' clubhouse. Last Saturday afternoon, for example, his teammates were teasing Maya about wearing his first leather jacket. Oh, he was wearing it proudly. 
There was Nyjer Morgan needling Maya. Livan Hernandez was getting on Maya about the jacket. Maya then put on his sun glasses and walked out of Space Coast Stadium -- proud that he was wearing his jacket.

Each month, a deserving Bill Ladson passage is featured.

The Two Ways to Win More Games

Last season the Nationals scored 655 runs and allowed 742, for a run differential of -87 and an overall record of 69-93.  Respectively, those outcomes ranked 14th, 12th, 13th, and 14th in the NL.

What's the most efficient way to reduce post-game scenes like this one?
It is obvious that run differential is highly determinative of a team's record.  It is equally obvious that there are two paths to improvement - (1) score more runs; (2) allow fewer runs.  A huge amount of virtual ink has been spilled on nationals.com advocating for improved defense and declaring the team's offense to be adequate.  In reality, though:
  • Does it matter whether the team's run differential is improved through RA or RS?
  • For a given run differential, how much does the overall level of RA and RS matter?
  • Generally, what can be said about RA vs. RS improvements?

Monday, February 21, 2011

Whoops: A Continuing Series (LaRoche's Offense)

From 'Nationals Introduce First Baseman LaRoche':
"LaRoche, 31, is coming off the best season of his career, hitting .261 with 25 home runs and 100 RBIs for the D-backs in 2010."
This is kind of awkward, but it was actually LaRoche's worst offensive season since 2005.  Below are his annual OPS+ and oWAR tallies:

  

Cue it up:


Confirmation We're Not in the Twilight Zone

Nats GM Mike Rizzo gets 'Ladson-ed' in a recent interview and doesn't know how to respond:
Ladson: Let's talk about Riggleman. Is he in a must-win situation?
Rizzo: You are asking a Jim Riggleman question during the second week of Spring Training?
Ladson: He is on a one-year deal.
Rizzo: Jim Riggleman is the manager of the ballclub. I have great confidence in him.
I'm always glad for confirmation that other people think Ladson is a clown.  A world where that's not the case would be the worst Twilight Zone episode ever.


Bill Ladson's Defense Fetish

Ladson loves the leather.
From the 2/18 'Inbox':  "The reason the Nationals lost so many games the last few years is because of defense."


From the 2/20 Q&A with GM Mike Rizzo:  "Defense has been the weakest part of the team since 2008."


From that same interview: "How tough was it to watch the team play defense the last three years. The team was always at or near the bottom of that category?"


These are all very strong claims - could they be true?  (Spoiler: No.)

Friday, February 18, 2011

An Object Lesson in Commitment; Or, Needless Pujols-to-Nats Buzz Killing

Pujols to the Nats?  Probably not, but it's still fun to think about. 

Straight from the February 8th 'Inbox':

"What are the chances of the Nats making a run at Prince Fielder next offseason? It seems that one more big bat would make them a very good team.
-- Jeff K., New York


From [sic] a scale from zero to 10, the answer is zero. The team is committed to Adam LaRoche at first base."

It is bizarre that the presence of LaRoche (and the one year that will be remaining on his contract) completely precludes the Nationals from kicking the tires on one of the NL's premiere players.  Bizarre enough for me to doubt this is the view of team officials, whose generic answer for such matters is always 'we will explore any options to improve the team.'  Anyway, let's just consider the stage set and move on to happier topics - namely, Pujols-to-the-Nats speculation (Tyler Kepner via the NY Times' Bats Blog):

Friday, February 11, 2011

The Origin Story

If I'm the father of this blog, then Ladson's 2011 Nationals Season Outlook is surely its mother. The New Year's Day tradition comes in the form of '10 Burning Questions,' where Ladson raises (and answers) what he believes are the 10 questions that will most impact the 2011 season.  Let's skip down the list a bit:

9. Should the Nationals re-sign Willie Harris?

E-22.  At least he had 32 RBIs.

This is not satire. Question 9 actually happened.  To nobody's surprise, Ladson's answer was a resounding 'Yes':

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Really? A blog dedicated to Bill Ladson's incompetence?

A: Really.